– Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia
with S. Cattan, E. Fitzsimons, C. Meghir and M. Rubio-Codina
NBER WP 20965
– Work pays: different benefits of a workfare program in Colombia
with Arthur Alik-Lagrange Costas Meghir, Sandra Polana-Reyes and Marcos Vera-Hernndez (available soon)
with Ingvild Almas, Alex Armand and Pedro Carneiro
– Parental Beliefs and Investments in Human Capital
with Flavio Cunha and Pamela Jervis (available soon)
– Human capital development and parental investment in India
with Costas Meghir and Emily Nix
with Elena Pastorino
with Peter Levell, Hamish Low and Virginia Sanchez-Marcos
with Arlen Guarn, Carlos Medina and Costas Meghir
– Microcredit Contracts and Risk Diversification
with Britta Augsburg and Ralph de Haas (available soon)
with Costas Meghir and Corina Mommaerts, NBER WP No.21059
– Global demographic trends, capital mobility, saving and consumption in Latin America and Caribbean
with Andrea Bonfatti, Sagiri Kitao and Guglielmo Weber
– Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia
with S. Cattan, E. Fitzsimons, C. Meghir and M. Rubio-Codina) NBER WP. No. 20965
with Torben Nielen
– Education Choices and Returns on the Labour and Marriage Markets:
Evidence from Data on Subjective Expectations
with Katja Kaufmann
– Why is Multiple Micronutrient Powder ineffective at reducing childhood anaemia in Colombia?
Evidence from a Randomised Controlled Trial
with Alison Andrew, Emla Fitzsimons and Marta Rubio-Codina
SSM- Population Health, Vol 2 pp95-104
– Mediating pathways in the socio-economic gradient of child development
Evidence from children 6–42 months in Bogota
with M. Rubio-Codina and S. Grantham McGregor
International Journal of Behavioral Development, 2016
Evidence from a large scale experiment in Colombia
with Laura Abramosky, Kay Barron, Pedro Carneiro and George Stoye.
forthcoming in Economia, Journal of LACEA,
Abstract: We evaluate the large scale pilot of an innovative and major welfare intervention in Colom- bia, which combines homes visits by trained social workers to households in extreme poverty with preferential access to social programs. We use a randomized control trial and a very rich dataset collected as part of the evaluation to identify program impacts on the knowledge and take-up of social programs and the labor supply of targeted households. We find no consistent impact of the program on these outcomes, possibly because the way the pilot was implemented resulted in very light treatment in terms of home visits. Importantly, administrative data in- dicates that the program has been rolled out nationally in a very similar fashion, suggesting that this major national program is likely to fail in making a significant contribution to re- ducing extreme poverty. We suggest that the program should undergo substantial reforms, which in turn should be evaluated.
– Consumption Inequality
with Luigi Pistaferri.
forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Perspective
Volume 30, Number 2—Spring 2016—Pages 1–27,
with B. Augsburg
forthcoming in Economica, 2016
Abstract: This paper uses unique primary data to analyze and characterize the process that generates household income of poor households in rural India. We analyze and use data on individual subjective expectations elicited directly from the respondents of a household survey. We describe how the data was elicited and discuss its validity and to what degree we can trust that it reflects agents believes about the future. We then use the responses to the subjective answers to the expectations questions and a para- metric assumption to fit, for each household in the sample, a probability distribution for future income. We then use the moments we can compute from this distribution, together with data for actual current income, to specify and estimate a dynamic model of household income. We find that our households face a very persistent income pro- cess: we cannot reject the hypothesis of a random walk. Our paper is one of the first that uses subjective expectations data to model income processes.
– Holy Cows or Cash Cows?
with Britta Augsburg, NBER WP 20304 .
Forthcomin in Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2016
Abstract: In a recent paper, Anagol, Etang and Karlan (2013) consider the income generated by these owning a cow or a buffalo in two districts of Uttar Pradesh, India. Given the value of the animals, the net profit generated ignoring completely labour costs, gives rise to a small positive rate of return. Once any reasonable estimate of labour costs is added to the calculation, the rate of return is a large negative number. The authors therefore conclude that the households holding this type of assets do not behave according to the tenets of capitalism. A variety of explanations, typically appealing to religious or cultural factors have been invoked for such a puzzling fact. In this note, we point to a much simpler explanation that is fully consistent with rational behaviour on the part of Indian farmers. In computing the return on cows and buffaloes, the authors used data from a single time year. Cows and buffaloes are assets whose return varies through time. In drought years, when fodder is scarce and more expensive, milk production is lower and profits are low. In non-drought years, when fodder is abundant and cheaper, milk production is higher and profits can be considerably higher. Therefore, the return on cows and buffaloes, like that of many stocks traded on Wall Street, is positive in some years and negative in others. The fact that in a given year the observed return on a risky asset is negative could certainly not be used as a contradiction of one of the basic tenets of capitalism. We report evidence from three years of data on the return on cows and buffaloes in the district of Anantapur and show that in one of the three years returns are very high, while in drought years they are similar to the figures obtained by Anagol, Etang and Karlan (2013).
– The Determinants of Human Capital Formation During the Early Years of Life: Theory Measurement and Policies
Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol 13 , No 6 (December) pp.949-997.
Abstract: This paper is based on my presidential address for the European Economic Association meetings held in Toulouse in August 2014. In it, I discuss a research agenda on the study of human capital accumulation in the early years, with a particular focus on developing countries. I discuss several methodological issues, from the use of structural models, to the importance of measurement and the development of new measurement tools. I present a conceptual framework that can be used to frame the study of human capital accumulation and view the current challenges and gaps in knowledge within such an organizing structure. I provide an example of the use of such a framework to interpret the evidence on the impacts of an early years intervention based on Randomized Controlled Trial.
– Frank Ramseys : A Mathematical Theory of Saving
Economic Journal, Vol 125 (583) pp. 269-294
– Building social capital: conditional cash transfers and cooperation
with L. Pellerano and S. Polania-Reyes
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2015.04.004
– The Socio-Economic Gradient of Child Development:
Cross-Sectional Evidence from Children 6-42 months in Bogota
with Marta Rubio-Codina, Costas Meghir, Natalia Varela, and Sally Grantham- McGregor
Journal of Human Resources Vol. 50(2), Pages 464-483, Spring 2015. (pdf)
– Should Cash Transfers Be Conditional? Conditionality, Preventive Care, and Health Outcomes
with Veruska Oppedisano and Marcos Vera-Hernandez
American Economic Journal. Applied. American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 35-52. (pdf)
– The Impacts of Microfinance: Evidence from Joint-Liability Lending in Mongolia
with Britta Augsburg, Ralph De Haas, Emla Fitzsimons and HeikeHamgart),
American Economic Journal Applied. American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 90-122. (pdf)
– Modelling Movements in Individual Consumption: A Time Series Analysis of Grouped Data
with M Borella
International Economic Review, vol. 55, pages 959-991,.
– Cognitive Deficit and poverty in the first five years of childhood in Bangladesh
with J Hamadani; F. Tofail; S. Huda; D. Alam; D. Ridout and S. Grantham-McGregor
Pediatrics, Vol 134 (4), (), pp.e1001-8, doi:10.1542/peds.2014-0694 .
– Admixture in Latin America: Geographic Structure, Phenotypic Diversity and Self-Perception of Ancenstry
Based on 7,342 Individuals
with A. Ruiz Linares et al
PLOS Genetics; 10(9):e1004572. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1004572. eCollection 2014 Sep. PMID:25254375.
– Using the infrastructure of a conditional cash transfer programme to deliver a scalable integrated early child development programme in Colombia
A cluster randomised controlled trial
with C. Fernndez, E. Fitzsimons, S. M Grantham-McGregor, C. Meghir and M. Rubio-Codina,
British Medical Journal, 349:g5785
– Consumption Inequality over the Last Half Century: Some Evidence Using the New PSID Consumption Measure
with L Pistaferri
The American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Volume 104, Number 5, , pp. 122-126
– Efficient responses to targeted transfers
with V. Lechene
Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 122(1), pp.178-222, DOI: 10.1086/674968.
– Education Choices and Returns to Schooling: Intra-household Decision Making, Gender and Subjective Expectations
with Katja Kaufmann
Journal of Development Economics , vol. 109(C), pp. 203-216.
– Community Nurseries and the Nutritional Status of Poor Children. Evidence from Colombia
with V di Maro and M Vera-Hernandez
Economic Journal, Vol 123 (9) pp 1025-1058.
– The effect of increases in food prices on consumption and welfare in rural Mexico
with V. DiMaro, V. Lechene and D. Phillips
Journal of Development Economics, vol. 104(C), pages 136-151.
– The demand for food of poor urban Mexican households: Understanding policy impacts using structural models
with M Angelucci
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol 5(1)) pp 146-78.
– The Impact of Oportunidades on Consumption, Savings and Transfers
with M. Angelucci and V. DiMaro
Fiscal Studies, Vol. 33(3), pp. 305-334.
– Risk Pooling, Risk Preferences, and Social Networks
with A Barr, JC Cardenas, G Genicot and C Meghir
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol. 4(2): 134–67. DOI:10.1257/app.4.2.134
– Food and Cash Transfers: Evidence from Colombia
with E. Battistin and A. Mesnard
Economic Journal , Vol 122, pp 92-124. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02473.x
– Housing choices over the life cycle
with R. Bottazzi, H. Low, L. Neisham and M. Wakefield),
Review of Economic Dynamics , Vol.15(1),pp. 1-18, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2011.09.001.
– Education Choices in Mexico: Using a Structural Model and a Randomized Experiment to Evaluate PROGRESA
with C. Meghir and A. Santiago,
The Review of Economic Studies, 79 (1): 37-66. DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdr015.
– Behind the scenes: experience managing and conducting large impact evaluations in Colombia
with Bertha Briceo and Laura Cuesta
Journal of Development Effectiveness, Dec. 2011 DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2011.636485.
– The impact of cash transfers to poor women in Colombia on BMI and obesity: prospective cohort study
with I Forde, T. Chandola, S. Garcia and M. Marmot
International Journal of Obesity, DOI: 10.1038/IJO.2011.234.
– Changes in Consumption at Retirement
with Emma Aguila and Costas Meghir
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 93 (3, pages 1094-1099.
– Subsidizing Vocational Training for Disadvantaged Youth in Developing Countries
Evidence from a Randomized Trial
with Adriana Kugler and Ccostas Meghir
American Economic Journal, Applied, Vol. 3 (3), , pages 188-220.
– Risk Sharing in Private Information Models with Asset Accumulation
with Nicola Pavoni,
Econometrica, Vol.79 (4) , pages 1027-68.
– Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth? The Coincident Cycles of House Prices and Consumption in the UK
with Andrew Leicester and Matthew Wakefield
Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 9(3), pages 399-435 .
– Intertemporal consumption choices, transaction costs and limited participation into financial markets
Reconciling data and theory
with Monica Paiella,
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol26 (2), pages 322-343.
– Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy
with Guglielmo Weber
Journal of Economic Literature, 48(3):693–751. DOI: 10.1257/ jel.48.3.693 (pdf)
– Mandated Attendance at Parenting Workshops Improves Womens Healthcare Knowledge But
with I Forde, T Chandola and M Marmot
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol 64, A58. (pdf)
– Mexico in the 1990s: the Main Cross-Sectional Facts January 2010
with Chiara Binelli
Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol 13, Issue 1, Pages: 238-264. (pdf)
– Childrens education and Work in the Presence of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Rural Colombia
with Emla Fitzsimons, An Gomez, Marta I. Rodriguez, Costas Meghir and Alice Mesnard
Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol 58(2), 181-210. (pdf)
– Building Trust? Conditional Cash Transfers Programs and Social Capital
with Luca Pellerano and Sandra Polania
Fiscal Studies, Vol. 30, Issue 2, Pages: 139–177.
– Oportunidades: Program Effect on Consumption, Low Participation, and Methodological Issues
with Manuela Angelucci
Economic Development and Cultural Change , Vol57(3) pp.479-506.
– Estimating Euler Equations with Noisy Data: Two Exact GMM Estimators
with S. Alan and M. Browning
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol 24 (2), pp.309-324.
– Booms and Busts: Consumption, Expectations and House Prices in the UK
with L. Blow, R. Hamilton and A. Leicester
Economica, Vol. 76(301), pp.20-50.